Rate Lock Advisory

Wednesday, May 5th

Wednesday’s bond market has opened fairly flat after no big surprises came in this morning’s sole economic report. Stocks are also calm during early trading with the Dow down 34 points and the Nasdaq up 4 points. The bond market is currently down 1/32 (1.59%), but a little weakness yesterday afternoon may cause a slight increase in this morning’s mortgage pricing.

1/32

Bonds

30 yr - 1.59%

34

Dow

34,098

4

NASDAQ

13,638

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium

Neutral

ADP Employment

April’s ADP Employment report was posted at 8:15 AM ET this morning, showing 742,000 private sector jobs were added back to the economy last month. Forecasts were calling for 800,000 jobs, hinting that the private sector employment situation wasn’t as strong as thought. This was still an increase from March’s revised 565,000 though, showing gains month over month. The weaker than expected number is favorable for rates, while the increase from March can be considered a negative. Therefore, it is safe to label this report neutral for bonds and mortgage rates.

Medium

Unknown

Weekly Unemployment Claims (every Thursday)

Tomorrow has two moderately important releases that we will be watching, starting with last week’s unemployment figures. They are expected to show 530,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed during the week, down the previous week’s 553,000. Rising claims is a sign of employment sector weakness, meaning the higher the number tomorrow, the better the news it is for mortgage rates.

Medium

Unknown

Productivity and Costs (Quarterly)

1st Quarter Productivity and Costs data is also set for release at 8:30 AM ET tomorrow. This information helps us measure employee productivity in the workplace. High levels of productivity help allow low-inflationary economic growth. This update will likely be a non-factor for rates though, unless it shows a significant variance from forecasts. Productivity is expected to have risen 5.0% while labor costs fell 1.6%.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Marc Moser / NMLS# 232625

Licensed in Florida

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